Abdullo Mamadamon

Annotation:

Mountains cover ninety-three percent of Tajikistan. That single figure shapes the country's logistics: the road network absorbs climate stress with almost no modal alternative behind it. This article assesses the vulnerability of the transport sector and examines the adaptation governance system now taking shape. The design is mixed-method. Content analysis covers strategic and regulatory documents, among them the Fourth National Communication under the UNFCCC and the updated NDC; economic figures come from World Bank, Asian Development Bank and EBRD reporting; physical parameters of the environment were derived by synthesising CMIP6 climate modelling data for Central Asia. Annual damage to the road network from natural hazards stands at USD 45 million, or 0.5% of GDP, and projections push it to USD 80 million by the mid-2030s. Among the surveyed hazardous sites, mudflows account for 36%, avalanches for 31%, rockfalls for 13%. Repair and maintenance costs rise under every scenario examined. Adaptation investment made in time reverses the trend: expected GDP losses fall from 5-6% to 2.0-3.8%. Engineering priorities are best set through cost-benefit analysis. A road maintenance fund and the full deployment of early warning systems are treated here as prerequisites rather than options, while climate criteria should enter road planning regulations through life-cycle assessment.

Keywords: climate change; adaptation; transport infrastructure; Tajikistan; resilience; mudflows; avalanches; climate risks; road network; disaster risk reduction.